How did Florida stay red when so much of the country went blue? It started with the biggest head start in the nation.![]()
Going into Tuesday, Florida Republicans had 1.54 million more registered voters than Democrats: 41.5% to 30.3%, an 11-point edge. No other state that registers voters by party has a Republican lead that big in raw numbers.![]()
How other big states started:![]()
Arizona: R +6.5 points
North Carolina: R +0.3
Nevada: about even
Pennsylvania: D +1.9
California: D +20
New York: D +25![]()
Even with an 11-point cushion, Republicans won every statewide race by less than 3 points:![]()
Governor: Byron Donalds (R) 4,123,135, David Jolly (D) 4,010,202. Margin: about 113,000 votes, or 1.4 points.
U.S. Senate: Ashley Moody (R) 50.8%, Angie Nixon (D) 48.1%. Margin: about 2.7 points.
Attorney General: James Uthmeier (R) 4,168,761, Jose Javier Rodriguez (D) 4,010,263. Margin: about 158,000 votes, or 1.9 points.
Chief Financial Officer: Blaise Ingoglia (R) 4,141,271, Annette Taddeo (D) 3,982,037. Margin: about 159,000 votes, or 2.0 points.
Agriculture Commissioner: Wilton Simpson (R) 4,150,475, Joey Mendoza Atkins (D) 3,968,752. Margin: about 182,000 votes, or 2.2 points.![]()
Republicans came in with a 1.54 million-voter registration lead. Their biggest statewide win was about 182,000 votes.![]()
The same thing happened here at home in Brevard.![]()
Brevard Republicans have 95,565 more active voters than Democrats: 46.5% to 25.2%, a lead of more than 21 points.![]()
Mike Haridopolos won Brevard by only 33,927 votes, or 12.7 points (151,057 to 117,130 over Jennifer Jenkins). That’s barely half of his party’s registration lead in his home county.![]()
Across all of CD8, he won by about 6.5 points, 53.3% to 46.7%. In 2024 he won CD8 by 24.5 points, or more than 110,000 votes. The district lines changed this year, but a drop from about 24 points to about 6 is a huge swing for a seat that’s supposed to be safe.![]()
And Brevard may be about to elect a Democrat for the first time in over a decade.![]()
No Democrat has won a partisan race in Brevard since at least 2012. Since then, Republicans won every one.![]()
This year, Democrat Dan McDow leads Rep. Monique Miller by 274 votes in House District 33, 50.19% to 49.81%, with all precincts reporting. If his lead holds through the recount, he’ll be Brevard’s first Democrat elected to the Florida House since the 1990s. This happened after a hostile takeover in Brevard of the local Republican Executive Committee orchestrated by Randy Fine, State Committee Woman Marie Rogerson (Fine's Deputy Chief of Staff), and State Committeeman Josiah Gattle (who has lost every election he ever ran to a democrat in bright red Brevard). They partnered with School Board Members Matt Susin and Gene Trent for strategy yet were unable to even make a quorum for almost a year. Under their leadership after ousting former Chair Rick Lacey, Brevard had it's worst Republican performance in over a decade with Trent losing his seat as an incumbent Republican running in an overwhelmingly red district.![]()
Congress is closer than the 20-8 delegation makes it look. As of late Tuesday, five Florida congressional races were within 1 point:![]()
District 9: Darren Soto (D) +0.5
District 27: Maria Elvira Salazar (R) +0.5
District 7: Ryan Elijah (R) +0.6
District 13: Anna Paulina Luna (R) +0.8
District 26: Mario Diaz-Balart (R) +0.8![]()
The shift was clear in Tallahassee too:![]()
State House: Republicans are on track to lose about 15 seats and their two-thirds supermajority. Democrats are no longer a “super-minority.”![]()
State Senate: Democrats were leading in at least one Republican-held seat. The GOP supermajority there appears to have survived, but barely.![]()
Republicans held every statewide office, but by only a fraction of their registration lead, and they lost ground from Tallahassee to Brevard.![]()
So Florida wasn’t immune to the national shift. It just had a bigger lead to lose.![]()
All results are unofficial and don’t include provisional ballots or mail ballots that can still be cured. Several races, including House District 33, may go to recounts. ![]()
Read my full analysis is the link in the comments.
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