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The latest forecast from the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University (CSU) has issued a stark warning for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, projecting it to be one of the most active seasons on record. The team, led by renowned scientists including Philip J. Klotzbach, anticipates a significant uptick in hurricane activity due to a combination of record warm sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic and a likely transition from El Niño to La Niña conditions.
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The 2024 season is expected to feature 23 named storms, significantly higher than the 1991–2020 average of 14.4. Of these, 11 are predicted to become hurricanes, with five reaching major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher), surpassing the average of 7.2 and 3.2, respectively. This forecast is buoyed by an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index projection of 210, almost double the average of 123, indicating a season of not just more storms, but more powerful and longer-lasting ones.
A key driver behind this ominous prediction is the current state of sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, which are at record highs. Warmer waters are a critical fuel for hurricanes, enhancing their formation and intensification. Furthermore, the anticipated shift to La Niña conditions, characterized by cooler Pacific Ocean temperatures, is expected to reduce wind shear over the Atlantic, creating a more favorable environment for hurricanes to develop and strengthen.
The CSU team’s forecast also includes a significant increase in the probability of major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. Specifically, the chance of a major hurricane strike on the entire U.S. coastline is pegged at 62%, up from the average of 43%. For the U.S. East Coast, including Florida, the probability rises to 34% from an average of 21%, while the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas, sees its likelihood increase to 42% from 27%.
This forecast serves as a critical reminder for residents in hurricane-prone regions to prepare for the upcoming season. “As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them,” states the CSU report. With the odds of a more active and potentially more destructive hurricane season being higher than usual, communities, governments, and individuals are urged to take early and comprehensive preparedness actions to mitigate the risks associated with these natural disasters.
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In anticipation of the heightened activity, CSU will continue to monitor evolving oceanic and atmospheric conditions and provide updated forecasts throughout the season. However, the message is clear: the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is not to be underestimated, and preparations should begin now to ensure safety and resilience in the face of potential storms.
